ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through
the day.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...
Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).

...Mid-South...
A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin,
northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong.

...Discussion...
While a notable mid/upper high persists across the southwestern mid-
into subtropical western Atlantic, flow emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to remain progressive into and
across the Pacific coast through this period. Within this regime, a
strong mid/upper jet streak, short wave trough and embedded
mid-level cyclone are forecast to dig across the northern U.S.
Pacific coast through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain Region
and Rockies by early Friday. It appears that this will be
accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies late Thursday through Thursday night.

As this occurs, a preceding short wave trough, which has emerged
from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, likely will be forced
north-northeast of the central Great Plains through the Upper
Midwest and upper Great Lakes region by late Thursday night. Models
suggest that it will deamplify as it does, but an initially deep
associated surface cyclone may maintain considerable strength as its
center migrates from northeastern Kansas through northeastern Iowa
by late afternoon, before undergoing more appreciable weakening
while continuing across the eastern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan
vicinity overnight.

...Great Plains into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
Considerable convective development may be ongoing at the outset of
the period across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley into the Great
Lakes, and southward across the eastern Great Plains into central
Texas. Much of this is likely to be well in the process of
weakening, particularly across the southeastern Great Plains, as the
mid/upper wave continues accelerating across/north-northeast of the
central Great Plains during the day.

Due to still somewhat modest warm sector boundary-layer moisture,
and convective cloud cover spreading downstream across the potential near-surface inflow environment, models suggest little potential for appreciable destabilization and re-intensification of the initial
pre-cold frontal convective development as it spreads across and
east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley during the day.

However, in its wake, a corridor of better pre-cold frontal
low-level moisture return, beneath a plume of a steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with a developing dry slot, is forecast to
contribute to at least a narrow corridor of substantive
boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg along/ahead of a developing
dryline/closely trailing cold front, from the vicinity of the low
across east central Iowa southwestward toward the Missouri Ozarks by
20-21Z.

Particularly near the surface low and warm front intersection,
forcing for ascent probably will be sufficient to support intense
convective development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear
and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (beneath a 50+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet). This should, at least initially, include
discrete supercell development with potential to produce tornadoes,
before perhaps growing upscale while developing east-northeastward
ahead of the surface cyclone into Thursday evening.

Additional supercells are likely to continue developing
south-southwestward along the trailing dryline, before it is
overtaken by the cold front, toward the lower Missouri Valley.
Embedded within south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the
order of 50+ kts, fast storm motions roughly aligned with the axis
of destabilization could support a couple of long-lived/long track
supercells with potential for strong tornadoes, before convection
weakens Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 020606
SWODY2
SPC AC 020604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave approaching
the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to translate
east/southeastward over the next 48 hours, eventually ejecting into
the central Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As
this occurs, robust cyclogenesis is expected along a residual
baroclinic zone across the southern to central Plains. Low to mid
60s dewpoints will spread north from the southern Plains/Ozark
Plateau into the Midwest as the baroclinic zone lifts northward as a
warm front. By late afternoon a cold front will begin pushing
southeast across NE, KS, and OK, which will support scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development by early evening. Elsewhere,
more isolated thunderstorms are expected along the warm frontal zone
draped from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley.

....Iowa and northern Missouri...
Regionally, the best convective environment will most likely emerge
immediately south of the warm front and ahead of the developing
surface low. Here, seasonally rich low-level moisture coupled with
several hours of synoptic-scale ascent/cooling aloft will support
MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear magnitudes
should be maximized within the warm sector given closer proximity to
the upper jet. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a
favorable tornado environment along the northern fringe of the warm
sector, characterized by effective SRH values on the order of
200-250 m2/s2 and STP values likely increasing into the 2-4 range by
early evening.

This environment will likely support a threat for significant
tornadoes given discrete storm modes; however, guidance continues to
suggest that initially discrete cells developing along the cold
front will likely grow upscale within a few hours. CAM solutions
continue to vary regarding the possibility of pre-frontal supercell
development along the warm front and/or within the warm sector.
Limited confidence in a prolonged supercell tornado threat precludes
higher tornado probabilities at this time, though the strongly
sheared low-level wind profile will likely support an embedded
tornado threat within the line to the south of the warm front. If
pre-frontal supercells can develop along/near the surface warm front
(as hinted by recent ARW and RRFS solutions) they will likely pose a
threat for strong tornadoes. As the convective line matures and
spreads east, severe gusts should become more prevalent, including
the potential for a significant wind gust or two given the focused
low-level mass response in close proximity to the surface low.

...Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by
late afternoon along the trailing cold front from eastern KS into
northern OK. Wind vectors through much of the profile will promote
storm motion and orientation along the initiating cold front, which
will result in quick upscale growth into a convective line.
Propagation southeastward into the warm sector may be modulated by
the mean southwesterly flow regime, though the line should
eventually move east/southeast through late evening and overnight as
the cold front advances southeast. While severe hail may be an
initial threat as convection develops, strong to severe wind gusts
should quickly become the predominant hazard with some threat for
embedded circulations.

Further southwest into southwest OK/northwest TX, weaker forcing for
ascent will likely yield more sparse storm coverage but a higher
probability for discrete cells. Forecast hodographs depict marginal
low-level wind shear, but favorably elongated wind profiles aloft
that will favor splitting supercells capable of producing large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. There is also a signal in some guidance
for somewhat more scattered, potentially elevated, convection
developing by early afternoon across northwest to north-central TX
within a weak warm advection regime. While confidence in how
widespread or intense this activity will be is limited due to model
variance, the environment should support organized cells capable of
large hail.

...Ohio Valley...
Ascent along the residual boundary should promote isolated
thunderstorm by late afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition.
While deep-layer flow will be more modest compared to locations
further west, 30-35 knot mid-level winds will help support a few
organized cells capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

...Northern MO/southern IA area...
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to
southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by
early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD
during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse
rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and
south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the
cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective
mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells
will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual
mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode
dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence
is low in the forecast details.

...Ozarks to northwest TX...
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather
widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX
along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in
low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in
combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast
doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable
hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind
damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.

...Southwest TX...
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the
Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts
will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell
structures.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.

A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe
gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.

Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remain unclear.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) within
the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, Saturday
afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support for
ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow. Although the signal in model output is not
particularly strong, it appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the leading outflow boundary while
overspreading southeastern Lower Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley
by early afternoon. As this occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric
shear beneath south to southwesterly wind fields strengthening to
40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer will be more than sufficient to
support organization and increasing risk for severe wind gusts and
tornadoes. This threat likely will persist as activity overspreads
much of the remainder of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
region into Saturday evening.

...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 031746
SWODY2
SPC AC 031745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING AND TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.

Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time, the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remains unclear.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) air
mass within the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive
to organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells,
Saturday afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support
for ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow.

Although the signal in model output is not particularly strong, it
appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the
leading outflow boundary while overspreading southeastern Lower
Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley by early afternoon. As this
occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric shear beneath south to
southwesterly wind fields strengthening to 40-60+ kt in the 850-500
mb layer will be more than sufficient to support organization and
increasing risk for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat
likely will persist as activity overspreads much of the remainder of
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into Saturday evening.


...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 040545
SWODY2
SPC AC 040543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Coast...
An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes on
Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form just ahead of the
front from southern Maryland south-southwestward into the eastern
Carolinas. Forecast soundings along this corridor have 35 to 40
knots of flow in the 500 to 1000 meter layer above ground level.
Cells that develop in the mid to late afternoon in areas that
destabilize the most could mix these strong winds to the surface,
resulting in an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 041709
SWODY2
SPC AC 041708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will develop
eastward over the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will extend south/southwest across the Mid-Atlantic into
central AL at midday. Ahead of the front, a plume of low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place across the eastern Carolinas into
southern NJ. Where stronger heating can occur, weak destabilization
is expected. Enhanced low and midlevel flow (30-40 kt just off the
surface) could support isolated strong to severe wind gusts where
stronger heating and modest destabilization occurs. Overall severe
thunderstorm potential should be tempered by poor lapse rates and
MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 050545
SWODY2
SPC AC 050543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great
Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern
Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida.
Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for
organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe
threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday
night.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 051655
SWODY2
SPC AC 051653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of
Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday.
Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the
Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest late in the period.

At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL
into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and
a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside
from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold
front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical
shear will preclude severe potential.

Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel
moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop
across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening.
Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening
midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an
upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these
areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 060546
SWODY2
SPC AC 060545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No
severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, as
a cold front moves slowly across the Florida Peninsula. South of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this
airmass, mainly across the southern and central Florida Peninsula in
the afternoon. Additional storms are expected on Tuesday from far
west Texas northward into the southern Rockies. No severe threat is
forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 061636
SWODY2
SPC AC 061635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern
High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front
oriented across north-central FL into the Gulf will result in a
mostly dry/stable boundary layer east of the Rockies. Ahead of the
front across parts of the FL Peninsula, a seasonally moist and
weakly unstable airmass will be in place. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across the central/southern FL
Peninsula and the Keys, though modest vertical shear and poor lapse
rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions
of the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Midlevel
moistening amid steep lapse rates will support weak destabilization
as an upper shortwave trough moves across the region. This should
support weak thunderstorm activity, though severe storms are not
expected. Further north, another upper shortwave trough will move
across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. While
moisture will be limited (PW values generally less than .75 in), a
few high-based thunderstorms will be possible across eastern MT and
vicinity as steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
foster weak destabilization. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles may support locally gusty winds, but severe convection is
not expected.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 070601
SWODY2
SPC AC 070600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

...Western and Central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will
move through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, with
moisture advection occurring to the south of the front over much of
the region. By early evening, the front is forecast to be located
across northern Kansas. As low-level convergence increases along the
front during the late afternoon, convective initiation will become
likely. A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop in
northern and western Kansas, moving southeastward into south-central
Kansas during the evening. The NAM forecast sounding at Garden City,
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon has MUCAPE near 750 J/kg with about
35 knots of effective shear and 850-500 mb lapse rates greater 8
C/km. This should be enough for isolated large hail with the
stronger cells. The hail threat should continue into the early to
mid evening, as a low-level jet ramps up across over the central
Plains.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 071644
SWODY2
SPC AC 071642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

...Kansas...

A compact upper trough will pivot across the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface, low
pressure centered over southern Manitoba will develop east/northeast
toward James Bay by the end of the period. A trailing cold front
will shift southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Gulf moisture return will remain muted given persistent high
pressure over the East and prior cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf. As a result, surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 40s ahead
of the cold front across the central Plains. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the region. This will aid
in weak destabilization in a narrow corridor near the front during
the late afternoon and evening. Low-level flow through at least 700
mb will remain fairly weak (less than 20 kt), but vertically veering
wind profiles with stronger northwest flow aloft will result in
supercell wind profiles and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the cold front
from late afternoon into the evening hours across western and
central KS. While instability will be the main limiting factor for a
more robust severe risk, isolated large hail will be possible with
any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Additionally, a well
mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic
profiles are evident in forecast soundings. Weak low-level flow will
temper the damaging wind risk, but locally strong gusts will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 080559
SWODY2
SPC AC 080557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the
Texas Panhandle.

...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At
the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and
central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far
northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms
gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model
forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop
across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending
eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late
afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with
700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support
isolated supercell development with potential for large hail.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F
along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts.

Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle,
dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually
increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east
of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 081722
SWODY2
SPC AC 081720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward
into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

...Synopsis...
An area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist from central into eastern
Canada, with various waves rotating from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes. The southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft
will extend across much of the northern Plains and the Midwest, with
30 kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern KS and MO.

At the surface, a warm front will lift north across northern KS and
MO during the day, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north with gusty
south winds. As a shortwave disturbance moves into the northern
Plains late, a surge of high pressure will push this boundary south
as a cold front after 00Z, extending from southwest KS into central
MO and IL by 12Z Friday. Scattered strong to severe storms will be
most likely along this east-west front, with more isolated activity
from western KS into the TX Panhandle along a dryline.

..Central Plains...
Storms are expected to develop relatively early, perhaps around 18Z
over northeast KS into southeast NE as warm/moistening air from the
south interacts with the warm front. Strong heating south of the
boundary will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while the
increasing theta-e rises near the boundary and beneath cold midlevel temperatures. The cold profiles aloft along with 40 kt effective
deep-layer shear will favor hail production, with perhaps isolated
very large hail.

As heating peaks during the later afternoon, additional cells are
expected extending southwestward into north-central KS. Though
dewpoints will only be in the 50s F, slow-moving supercells will be
possible, again with very large hail.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 090553
SWODY2
SPC AC 090551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Friday, as
mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly
southward to near the Kansas and Oklahoma state-line by midday.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
near the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the
lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of instability near the
front in the afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak around 1500
J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear is forecast to be around 30
knots near the front with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from
northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into the
Northeast, with temporary ridging across the Plains. To the west, a
large-scale upper trough will develop, with a lead wave moving into
the Great Basin overnight while a deeper upper low drops south off
the West Coast. Despite the ridging over the Plains, midlevel
temperatures will remain seasonably cool with around -14 C over KS.

At the surface, high pressure will move from the northern Plains
toward the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the
Northeast and into the OH Valley. Farther west, this front will
decelerate from southern MO into northern OK, and become a warm
front overnight into southern KS. Elsewhere, a surface trough will
develop from ID into NV as height falls occur late.

...From northeast NM eastward across southern KS and northern OK...
Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning from southeast KS
into northern OK, southwest MO and into northwest AR, with perhaps
some strong gust potential. This activity may weaken during the day.
To the west, strong heating will occur south of the main boundary,
with 50 F to near 60 F dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE.
Backed surface winds near the boundary will likely aid storm
development into northeast NM late in the afternoon, with activity
moving into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening. Activity will
be slow moving, with localized hail or wind potential.

...Northwest NV into southwest ID...
Strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures will result in
steep lapse rates across the region as the upper trough gradually
approaches. Deep-layer shear will be weak during the day but will
increase to 35-40 kt by evening as height falls arrive. Given the
later influence of the upper trough and marginal combination of
shear and instability, will maintain no severe probabilities at this
time. However, a cell or two could produce locally strong gusts or small/marginal hail into the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 100523
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Southern/Central Plains...

Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.
A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the
northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward
toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.

Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during
the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

...Central CA...

Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not
expected at this time.

...Great Basin vicinity...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge across the Plains will move east through the day
on Saturday with a strong mid-level trough approaching the
California coast. In between these 2 features, a mid-level shortwave
trough will move from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains. Lee
surface troughing will develop across the Front Range. The resulting strengthening low-level southerly flow will bring moisture northward
across the Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon
across West Texas and into eastern New Mexico. Weak inhibition
should allow for widespread thunderstorm development by early to
mid-afternoon. Relatively weak shear, especially early on will
likely result in somewhat nebulous organization and storm mergers
which may preclude individual updraft longevity/strength. However,
storms are expected to congeal by late afternoon and may result in
some more organized wind threat, supported into the overnight
period, as the low-level jet strengthens.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Weak height falls are expected to overspread the central Plains
through the day on Saturday. As this occurs, isolated to potentially
scattered storms are expected along and near the diffuse dryline.
Shear will remain somewhat weak across this region and therefore,
some hail/wind threat is possible, but a greater threat is not
anticipated. Guidance shows a small jet-streak ejecting across
central Kansas during the day Saturday. This may provide a slightly
more favorable zone of shear across central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show an
uncapped environment, but without an initiating boundary, storm
development remains uncertain. Any mesoscale lift associated with
this mid-level jet streak could result in an isolated supercell
during the afternoon/evening, but this scenario remains conditional.

...Iowa into southern Minnesota...
As the low-level jet strengthens Saturday night, isentropic ascent
will increase and thunderstorms will develop across the Upper
Midwest. Some 12Z CAM guidance has hinted at some additional
elevated thunderstorms across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
in the wake of the primary zone of ascent. This is likely associated
with the same jet streak moving across Kansas during the day. If
storms develop within this zone, forecast soundings support some
large hail threat. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to
cover this threat.

...Central California...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the California
coast Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively weak
instability ahead of this line (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE). However, 40
knots of flow in the lowest 1km may be sufficient to mix down some
of these stronger winds and result in some severe wind threat
Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Great Basin Vicinity...
Given the well-mixed, steep lapse-rate environment a few of the
storms which develop across the Great Basin vicinity could have some
strong wind gusts. Relatively weak instability may keep these
stronger gusts somewhat sporadic. Therefore, a Marginal Risk will
not be introduced at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on
Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave
impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow
across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the
Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move
across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across
southern MN into WI.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward
into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on
airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline
during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could
accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move
across OK/TX during the morning.

In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly
mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions
of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a
lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is
forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support
up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are
apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally
support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the
evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is
uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a
narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in
addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or
redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex,
but this scenario remains very uncertain.

...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity...

A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime
hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though
deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across
Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening.
If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts
will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and
bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours.

...Upper Midwest...

Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the
upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective
development may be limited in the wake of that feature.
Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead
of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened
midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms
develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger
storms.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 111731
SWODY2
SPC AC 111730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the West Coast
while ridging continues across the eastern US. Broad southwesterly
flow will propagate across the Rockies and into the Plains, with
several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the
upper Midwest. This pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of
the Rockies. Across the southern/central Plains, southerly surface
flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern
Plains into the upper Mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX.

It is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be
ongoing at the start of the D2/Sunday period across TX/OK and across central/northern MN. Some re-intensification of convection will be
possible across portions of central/eastern Texas. Additional
activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of
the dryline and across the Sierra Madre in Mexico.

...Central/Southern Plains...
In the wake of morning convection across portions of western Texas
into the OK/TX Panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue
to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. HREF guidance shows persistent mid to high
level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early
afternoon. It is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this
cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery.
Most guidance suggests MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will be common
from western Texas into western/central OK and southern KS. Given
the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will
likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western
Texas into western Oklahoma and high terrain in Mexico. Generally
linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support
risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds.
Additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in
KS/NE. With any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode,
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

...Upper Midwest...
Re-development of thunderstorm activity across the Upper Midwest
remains less certain Sunday afternoon. The mid-level wave will
advance eastward with a warm front lifting into Canada and surface
low tracking northeast. Most CAM guidance produces little to no
thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward
too quickly. HREF calibrated thunder signals also remain low. The
environment will be conditionally unstable, with MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear
profiles. Should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will
remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

ACUS02 KWNS 120548
SWODY2
SPC AC 120547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from
the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude
upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The
shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the
southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners
region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will
develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee
troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend
southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm
front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These
boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development
during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...

Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s
F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI.
Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the
region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much
of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By
late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to
overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may
be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front
given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles,
cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong
instability will support large hail potential.

If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable
of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain,
it appears most probable from southeast MN toward
south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time
into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Southern Plains...

A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the
surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX
Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping
will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the
dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the
dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient
for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop,
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps
a tornado will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)