ACUS11 KWNS 091840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091839=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...north central into northeastern Kansas and adjacent
portions of southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091839Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development accompanied by at
least increasing risk for large hail appears possible as early as
3-5 PM CDT. Trends are being monitored for a severe weather watch,
which probably will be needed at some point, but timing remains a
bit uncertain.

DISCUSSION...To the south of a stalled surface frontal zone near the Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity into northern Missouri, forcing for
ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is
maintaining scattered weak elevated or high based thunderstorm
development. However, breaks in cloud cover are allowing for
sufficient insolation to contribute to destabilization, in the
presence of a still rather modestly moist, but slowly moistening, boundary-layer.

Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting across
the high plains, stronger heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is
ongoing across western into central Kansas. Through mid to late
afternoon, it appears that a dryline may become better defined in
the vicinity of its intersection with the front, near Concordia KS, south-southwestward.

As this occurs, it appears that strengthening low-level warm
advection will become focused near the nose of a persistent 30+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet, across and northeast of the surface
front/dryline intersection into southern Nebraska between Hastings
and Beatrice. Coinciding with destabilization including
mixed-layer/most unstable CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg, it
appears that this will support the initiation of intensifying
thunderstorm development.

Based on latest model output, how far to the cool side side of the
surface front/dryline intersection and how soon remain a bit
unclear. However, it appears possible as early as the 20-22Z time
frame, in the presence of sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to
support supercell structures capable of producing large hail. For
any storm development rooted closer to the surface near the boundary intersection, the potential for strong surface gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two would be more appreciable.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 04/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!77OWidEEduR8bdkk2s4az3TT8PUa6u62ALc7JGJuc2lVKqMnrllMb2dCb6VkrUTVaEzrNkY0A= i93S-8Bmk7k4bjUG2A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 40339864 40709707 40079587 39529537 38989683 38859917
40339864=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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