ACUS11 KWNS 091904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091904=20
CAZ000-ORZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of northern California into Southwest
Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091904Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail
will be possible this afternoon. Limited storm coverage and
intensity will likely preclude a watch.

DISCUSSION...As an upper low approaches the northern California
coast, an increase of mid-level ascent has led to deepening
convection within the terrain. Deep-layer southerly flow has
maintained moisture in the region and dewpoints have held in the
low/mid 50s F in some areas. Where the greatest heating can occur
(i.e., temperatures reaching into the low/mid 60s), MLCAPE of
500-750 J/kg can be expected. A few stronger cores have already
pulsed up and down in intensity. The expectation is for additional
storms, a couple strong to marginally severe, to form in the next
several hours. Weaker effective shear (25-30 kts) will likely limit
the overall severity of storms, however.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7B80ydQr6C50u51eAjg0Xq3DbMQ8WqCPc1CmlDmg_ke7HYzoR0ncdb8_WibysTsgdJ6Ub-FWY= n9klQ-75lAFlQxy_vI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...

LAT...LON 39652334 41852430 43252389 43652296 43602242 43272223
42862246 42302297 41412284 40892274 40202270 39812285
39652334=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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