ACUS11 KWNS 092334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092333=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-100130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Far southern Nebraska and portions of northern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

Valid 092333Z - 100130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind will continue to
increase across north-central to northeast Kansas over the next
couple of hours as thunderstorm coverage increases and clustering
occurs.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and radar trends across far northern KS
and along the KS/NE border show an uptick in thunderstorm coverage
amid a localized increase in low-level ascent driven by a
combination of strengthening isentropic ascent (associated with a
modest uptick in 0-3 km southerly winds per regional VWPs) and
forcing along a localized southward surge of a frontal boundary
(noted in KUEX reflectivity). More isolated developing supercells
are also noted to the north of I-70, though somewhat weaker ascent
away from the mesoscale boundaries has resulted in a more gradual intensification thus far.

Regardless, based on recent RAP forecast soundings modified by local
surface observations, MLCAPE values to the south of the primary
synoptic boundary are likely between 1500-2000 J/kg downstream of
the developing cells/clusters. With effective bulk shear values
ranging 35-40 knots, the maintenance of discrete and semi-discrete
supercells appears likely over the next hour or so with an attendant
threat for severe hail. Hail stones between 1.5 and 1.75 inches in
diameter have been recently noted with some of this activity, but
the thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears supportive of
hail up to 2 to 2.5 inches as along as discrete storm modes can be maintained.=20

With time, eastward storm propagation and strengthening ascent at
the terminus of an increasing low-level jet will promote additional thunderstorm development. High cloud bases near 2 km atop a somewhat
deep/dry boundary layer are supporting strong downbursts per
regional velocity data and live web cams. This trend suggests that
convective outflows may be fairly widespread, and coupled with
increasing ascent/storm coverage, will likely result in clustering
and an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours
downstream across northeast KS.

..Moore.. 04/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5GhNRn_eBMHg2OOif1EeGzBqbVPwxUhBSI-0JlQl9CPotCglJjDhaLh7F2g0bs5iwlgQ2_Pjt= YTju1BGJ1m8e0pAoVE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38899849 39009874 39279880 39869869 40049856 40149823
40179583 39989557 39699557 39269578 38999609 38979655
38859817 38899849=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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