ACUS11 KWNS 092338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092338=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-100115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern and central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

Valid 092338Z - 100115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to bring a risk for
severe hazards across the southwestern portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 98 over the next 2-3 hours. Severe wind gusts are
the primary threat, with large hail also possible in central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed along/ahead of a dryline analyzed just west/northwest of
Dodge City, Kansas. Latest mesoanalysis depicts surface temperatures
in the low-80s F with dewpoints in the upper 40s, which is
contributing to a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the region.
High LCLs (~3 km AGL), dry sub-cloud layers with steep low-level
lapse rates, and DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg will continue to support
the potential for severe wind gusts to 55-60 kts, especially with
any stronger storm clusters that can become better organized. Steep
mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) and
supercell wind profiles (evident in the DDC VAD profiles) will also
support a threat for large hail with stronger, more sustained
convection. A gradual increase in low-level stabilization owing to
nocturnal cooling is then expected to yield a decreasing severe
threat after the next 2-3 hours.

..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kgjlkBM8LrnYDMsJ3cQuHdfS3hPGIRMo4VMnriEJ5qyMjMZzBpZWGU5WU_ZrxuZ5iAc2XCsu= bu6u_eG83R52TpfSU8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38389768 37869819 37389869 37059932 36999969 37030033
37450052 37960006 38599948 38919906 39009863 39019841
38999793 38839759 38389768=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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