ACUS11 KWNS 101928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101928=20
OKZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...parts of northwest/west central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101928Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable
southwest through west-northwest of the Enid OK vicinity through 3-5
PM CDT, with stronger storms posing a risk for small to marginally
severe hail and localized strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Insolation appears to have contribute to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization (including CAPE up to 2000 J/kg)
along the western flank of stalled/slow moving convective outflow to
the north through west-northwest of the Greater Oklahoma City area.=20
As destabilization continues, and mid-level inhibition erodes,
deepening convective development is underway in a corridor southwest
of Enid into areas near/south of Gage OK. Further intensification
into increasing thunderstorm development appears probable through
the next couple of hours, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent
associated with weak low-level warm advection.

Vertical shear across this region will remain quite weak, in the
presence of westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-15 kt.=20
However, thermodynamic profiles may be cool enough, with modestly
steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, to support small to
marginally severe hail in occasional stronger updraft pulses. A
couple of strong downbursts also appear possible, but the evolution
of a mesoscale convective vortex with consolidating, sustained
vigorous thunderstorm development will probably be needed to support
a more appreciable risk for damaging wind gusts. Potential for this
currently seems low, but perhaps not out of the question.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_UbK8jzuW8Z6S1MfIXQHfU8i3hsaK-Duf94HEbpnSEEQ-mWtqaxO7knnXWzJHlezh38RCMRuT= vwUzs2kGekzD7opYIk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 36259966 36289847 36059718 35719714 35359739 35539862
35789968 36259966=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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