ACUS11 KWNS 241413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241412
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...southern Mississippi...east-central and southeast Louisiana...and far southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 241412Z - 241645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds with gusts up to 60-65 mph
is expected to increase by late morning into early afternoon. A
severe thunderstorm watch will be required by 16Z or 17z.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in volumetric radar and IR satellite data
indicate at least a temporary deepening of convective updrafts from
west through north of Yazoo City, along the leading edge of an
elongated MCS that extends into central AR. The 12Z Jackson, MS and
Slidell, LA soundings sampled the presence of a very moist inflow
air mass, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s, yielding MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg. That instability will
fuel a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity through the
remainder of the morning along and slightly ahead of the system cold
pool as temperatures warm and low-level lapse rates steepen. The
instability in conjunction with some enhancement of northwest winds
above 3 km AGL per the current Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN VWPs
will support the development of a potentially intense cold pool with
some explicit CAM wind gust data indicating wind gusts up to 60-65
mph.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KRI4EBsArjMwrIAlCzQIFK7C550osV7ZXHkISIwtFSmOzRrXILXqD_ohNQqfOtCqHAApfnR-8GmwNRu3CWqpz0BCeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30869201 31729190 32189089 32188981 32158901 32018847
31298773 30458766 29538901 29168972 29289127 29809219
30719211 30869201

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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