ACUS11 KWNS 241653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241653
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...southeast Alabama and the central Florida Panhandle
into the lower Savannah River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241653Z - 241930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts are possible
with thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon. A
watch is unlikely due to the expected limited coverage of the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and lightning data indicate a
gradually deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm
development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the
region and along evolving sea breeze boundaries. The 12Z observed
soundings across the region sampled a very moist boundary layer,
contributing to a strongly unstable air mass for elevated parcels.
Since those observations, surface temperatures have warmed into the
lower 90s with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg.

Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of appreciable
large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to limit the potential
for an organized thunderstorm complex to evolve. However, the degree
of instability will support vigorous pulse storms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5cD7awtD2PHKJrVvYdpN5UPRcGGUZ36CdCTPNiVAas50RJyWyFGIeMd3qEG38KFLIl9SlgukUj8moTAnjA_vf9wcnRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30868588 31358570 31528442 31448288 31888186 32778085
32708046 32388034 31338103 30408133 29888190 29848296
29838396 29938516 30248568 30868588

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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